With few exceptions, 2011 was a very hard year for the major camera manufacturers in Asia. In April, Japan was ravaged by an earthquake, tsunami, and near nuclear meltdown. At the end of July, matters were compounded by flooding in Thailand and Southeast Asia, which destroyed additional manufacturing facilities owned by Nikon, Canon, and Sony. Throw in the effects of a sluggish global economy, and it is not hard to imagine why the industry might be grateful for the beginning of a fresh, new year.
So let me embark on a little wild speculation.
January might seem like odd timing, but I have a feeling that we’re going to start seeing new equipment, particularly from Nikon, announced this month. Nikon tends to announce new equipment months before it is actually ready to ship, so it might make sense to start the process now for shipping dates in the late winter/early spring. I have heard (completely unsubstantiated) rumors that the Nikon D800 and new Nikon D4 may be released soon, with the D800 receiving a massive sensor overhaul. The D700 currently uses a full frame 12 Megapixel sensor which has been lauded for its high-ISO performance, but I’ve heard that the new D800 may house a sensor with a resolution as high as 36 megapixels. If this were the case, the pixel density would closely match that of the popular D7000, also well regarded for its low-digital noise. Speculations are that the D4, however, will retain a lower resolution sensor to compete with the upcoming Canon 1DX. We may also see the successor of the Nikon D300s; if Nikon had held to its previous release schedule, the D400 would have been announced months ago, so I suspect we’ll hear about it any day now.
Canon, of course, will have some announcements coming before too long as well, but I’m guessing that they’ll wait a bit. I’m hoping to hear about the release of a 5D Mark III and 8D or 7D Mark II, and a 70D. Canon’s 18 Megapixel sensor has been in use now (in the 7D, 60D, T2i and T3i) since September of 2009, and while they’re great sensors, improvements in noise handling and dynamic range would be appreciated by everyone. Canon’s 20D (Aug 2004) 30D (Feb 2006), 40D (Aug 2007), 50D (Aug 2008), and 60D (Aug 2010) were all announced on a regular schedule of 18 or 12 months, with the exception of the 60D, which was 24 months. Whether the 70D comes at 18 or 24 months, we’ll see it this year… it will just be a matter of whether it’s next month or next summer.
Prices on the Canon 7D have dropped substantially over the past few months. While the body was initially priced at about $1800, it can now be found for only $1350, a price drop that may indicate that a replacement is coming sooner than later. And if there has ever been a highly anticipated Canon camera, it is certainly the 5D Mark III, which we have been anxiously awaiting for at least a year.
With any luck, we’ll also see Canon release an EF 24-70mm f/2.8L IS II this year, to accompany the beautiful 70-200 f/2.8L IS II. Although the current version is nothing to sneeze at, the pair of lenses form a powerhouse toolkit for many journalists today, and it would be nice if the former lens could live up to the standards of the latter.
What are you hoping to see in the coming year?
